chris: when he walks onto the debate stage wednesday night, mitt romney will now he's behind. know he needs to catch up. needs to win the night. what can he show of himself that he hasn't shown before and what does he need to show of barack obama that we don't already know? seeing is believing. the three times the debates have changed the lead in a presidential race. each time it was about the words, but also that something else, something that told voters what they didn't know and all of a sudden mattered a lot. and finally, bad numbers. barack obama's ahead in nearly every national poll and battle ground state poll. but what do we really make of the crunchers who say mitt romney has just a 1-5 chance to win this election? hi, i'm chris mathews. welcome to the show. with us today, new york magazine's john, trish and kelly and the huffington post's d howard. with just over a month to go for mitt romney, given the polls, the debates may be it. it could change the narrative that has dogged him or cemented. romney has the same urgent must-do list that he at the republican convent